Defcon 13 Presentation
Run your own meme!
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Saving J2EE

J2EE is topping out.

Here's the evidence....

1) In the misc.jobs newsgroups, J2EE shows a technical analysis pattern of steadily declining peaks:

Diagram of J2ee meme in decline Click for larger image

2) Saturated markets shift their focus from differentiated features to cost consciousness.
Low-cost JBoss steadily gains mind share:
Diagram of J2EE appserver growth Click for larger image

3) High cost J2EE tools are abandoned for cheaper alternatives. Eclipse is leading all other tools, but even Eclipse shows a pattern of a slowing growth rate:
Diagram of Eclipse growth Click for larger image

4) A rising competitor (according to ActiveGrid.com) with an accelerating rate of change.
(Linux, Apache, MySql, Perl)
Diagram of Eclipse growth Click for larger image

So. How do we save J2EE?

Should we even try?
First, let's look at a transaction cost concept... The Mythical Man Month.