I presented this concept towards the end of my 2005 Defcon presentation. The IT Market can be considered, in gestalt, as being an S-curve market with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...
As the 2001 inflection point approached, the IT industry was increasingly focused on mass market products and standards - modem protocols, Windows, TCP/IP, email, etc. A broader consumer audience created economies of scale for high-volume products and services.
But in the post-Crash world, profit margins on mass-produced products have fallen. Niche markets with high profit margins are sought after, but many companies still upgrade legacy products for decreasing profit margins (Oracle, Microsoft come to mind). The IT market is still in a slow-motion shakeout period, but I suspect that few IT workers believe it.
My own survival focus has been to track the growth rate of technologies, determine how viable and profitable they are, and move into the best bets. My current bets are SOA and Business Process Analysis...
