Con Artistry

A common element in con scams is that the mark ("sucker") front-loads his own money in hopes of gaining more money in the future. For instance, the mark might pay into a health care fund today in hopes of universal health care coverage in 2013...

"Claim: expand coverage to most uninsured

Fact: All bills do this. Fine Print: Coverage starts in 2013"

True Value

In periods of saturation, true value comes from the margin... from the most unexpected area of your world.

Novelty Meme Pattern

We attended the premiere of "Death, Sex & The Holidays" and I came away with two thoughts.

1) The young aim for shock value because it's easy

2) the six vignettes combined Common Context interwoven with The Unexpected

Refer back to Branded Bandwidth, Feb of 2006 - Mental bandwidth can be divided into two mutually exclusive sets - bandwidth which seeks to conserve itself (The Mundane) and bandwidth which seeks novelty. Last week's "Death & Sex" play successfully threaded both bandwidths into a single story.

It's another meme design pattern - bind to common context, threaded with novelty.

Autonomy

Autonomy is inversely related to complexity. It's possible to optimize autonomy but in general, it's bounded by complexity. Autonomy is a rough proxy for flexibility.

Arab Central Bank

"Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia signed and ratified the pact... towards setting up a joint central bank and... single currency."

My comments from Sept, 2006 - "major international blocs have been planning to abandon the US dollar... Asian and Arab regions have their own schemes underway".

It's going to happen.
"Dishonest money breeds dishonest people".

2010

I think Harry Dent is the percentage bet - a second market crash in 2010 that leads into a deeper downturn for at least two years. I hope he's wrong, or that the Federal government can counter-balance the demographic forces. A second crash would shoot unemployment up to Great Depression levels and lead to bankruptcy and federalization of many State & local governments. Probably gut many pension funds, too.

Sometimes i wish my Echo hadn't been wrecked. I don't need much else except a reliable car. On the other hand, it was nearing 200K miles and if I ever work again I'd buy something better. The Echo was fine but far from my dream car.

Shoot The Messenger

The Great Reckoning repeatedly warns that the general population can't comprehend The Great Reckoning and will tend to blame the messenger once it begins.

I see now that it's true. Most people can't think outside of their environmental context and past experience and many are provincial and petty. Previously, they were regulated via cultural norms and only a few were smart enough to understand the underpinnings behind those norms. But as the 1982 Credit Bubble began, cultural norms washed away and behavior deviated towards short-term outcomes.

A trend reversal is likely, where most people are forced back into more "traditional" behavior.

Obushma

Inspired by the Rolling Stone article?

Recession Scorned

Noted for posterity. On July 15, 2009, I posted my Google trends prediction to CalculatedRisk, predicting the recession's end based on trend change in Google keyword counts. Although I'm uncredited, the timing (July 17, two days later) of Larry Summer's public announcement of recession end based on Google keyword counts is suspicious.

Funeral For A Friend

He called me up last week, unsure of how to proceed.
How strange that he'd defer to my expertise after making millions in high-tech.

"The United States that you and I know is dead", I said.

Silence.

"Thats all I can say. Proceed accordingly."

I suppose we should have a wake with the McFadden gang.

Maybe I'll drag him out to the coast again.

Paper Reality

McDonald's stock price is a good demonstration of the mapping of paper money to reality. Although very, very few people understand it, money is ultimately a symbolic representation of Reality. The exponential growth rate of interest rises faster than its underpinnings (reality), eventually leading to a large write-down in the value of paper.

The current credit cycle began around 1982, when Reagan and Paul Volcker transitioned us from government printing (inflation of the 1970s) to government borrowing. The first gradient readjustment of imaginary growth to true growth was the 2001 Dot Com crash. Notice how the gradient of growth since 2001 is significantly lower.

Blind Update

In the Land Of The Blind, the one-eyed man is feared and shunned.

Deflationary Expectations, Redux

We agreed that their hiring process was dysfunctional. I'd known this several years ago from my lone interview attempt. The company was gate-keepered by technically proficient but strategically myopic guardians and I finally decided they lacked strong management. A single company on the outside, many provincial fiefdoms on the inside, resulting in significant duplication and internal competition.

He confirmed what I already knew... he'd submitted almost fifty candidates in the past four months with zero placements. "They're my biggest source of job listings but I can't make any money", he complained, "and I can't afford to waste any more time on them".

Saving

I saved more money during my divorce than during my entire marriage.

Jamesons

He ordered a shot of Jameson's, so I ordered a double. My game was on and I won several times, garnering a wee bit o' hostility. I'd been inducted into the McFadden gang over the past few months, slowly learning their names and games. I don't know why he chose me or what we had in common but the pool was good, the guys were okay and the women... attractive enough. I'd met six or seven of them and they were like a primitive tribe. The women had primary partners but there was a fair amount of sharing and pass-around, it seemed. They were like a biker club.

I suspected he was angling for a threesome but as I heard more history, it seemed he was trying to find her a new man, a hand-off so he could move on in good faith. I'll never understand how he pictured me in the role, though.

We stood by the jukebox and she moved closer. I punched up a song and then she held my hand for a few seconds, testing. When I didn't pull away, she clutched tighter, then massaged my wrist and the muscles between my thumb and forefinger. She pushed up against me, swaying to the music, then she suddenly moved away and launched into a jig. Her feet faster than I'd have expected after so much whiskey.

Blond and blue-eyed, perhaps not Irish, in her thirties with a snub nose, full lips, but too thin; too thin from too much drinking. Her hands were cold from too little body fat. She buried her face against my chest and inhaled, then looked up and said,

"You use fabric softener?"

"Well, my mom does", I replied and she burst into laughter.

"Your mom does your laundry? How old are you?"

I answered but she didn't move away, comfortable with my arms around her. I was a puzzle that made no sense but I wasn't threat so we kissed for awhile. She nestled against me as we watch pool games and nobody cared except for a timid man who grimaced and walked outside. I discovered later that they were long-time friends.

My real problem showed up later and her name was Becka.
Younger, cuter and much more aggressive.