State Change

It's increasingly likely that we've entered a major state change. The upward credit cycle which began in 1982 was fueled by falling interest rates, partly possible by abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1970s. The cycle probably ended in 2001 although Greenspan coaxed an odd transition during 2003-2007 via the greatest housing bubble in U.S. history.

Most Americans have no idea what a reverse cycle looks like, when interest rates rise every year. when housing prices stagnate for years, when cash is increasingly better than credit. I expect the next few years will be quite unpleasant for many folks. Honesty may come back into vogue, a shock to those don't even realize their own dishonesty.

---

Apparently her cancer came back. I hope she makes it but I doubt that she will; a second trip through NeutronWorld is bad medicine with poor odds.

wow

wow... Just wow

Flex rocks

IPhone X

Posted from my iPhone

Amazing ecosystem built up already.
Voice dialing, GPS, learning languages, e-books.

iPhone

It's official, I finally sold out.

I bought my first Apple product, an iPhone. If I can secure some tether software I'll probably cancel my Verizon broadband card, although I like Verizon far more than AT&T.

San Juan Islands

Failure

I deleted all my personal ads and social networking accounts except for LinkedIn.com.
I dropped my ItsJustLunch subscription, too.
I haven't used my Events&Adventures membership for over 18 months now.

"These are not the droids I want..."

Many, perhaps most, Americans don't believe that a systemic financial failure is possible here. Today the FDIC shut down two more local banks and at current debt & leverage levels, a systemic failure is not only possible but probable. Fannie Mae lost 90% of its value for a reason. The odds are good of a full-blown panic by the end of the year.

Success

In today's email for one of my projects, I'm one of the Senior Technical Architects...

"Today I had the best experience in a Steering team meeting I've
ever, and I mean ever, have had.

I really felt like I saw the light at the end of the tunnel very
clearly today. Wanted to share my experience with all of you."

Batter Up!

And it's Washington Mutual up to bat for the Team Insolvency!

A takedown of WaMu essentially wipes out the FDIC, IndyMac already knocked out about 1/3rd of their reserves. The reality is that the FNM and FRE bailout is probably in the $250-500 billion range and the total possible losses in real estate are in the $5 trillion range, give or take a trillion or two.

We're probably not too far off from a declaration of "national emergency".

It's Started

When Weimar Germany caved in to The Great Depression, its culture shifted towards a denial and conformity which brought Hitler to power. In "The Great Reckoning", James Davidson warns that the United States will likely enter a similar period.

I believe it has begun.

In the past few months, I've been banned from three online boards for sarcastic commentary which was un-exceptional in earlier days. When people lose control of their lives, they often seek control of something else; anything else. The American workplace has been damaged for many years but I'm seeing an acceleration in groupthink and conformity and fewer people mention the emperor's new clothes. Steeped in silent desperation, the under-employed run around with their hair on fire. To not join in their frantic panic is to invite suspicion.

These post-Crash years might be a primer for the future and we may enter a period of pure madness as US culture seeks to maintain popular delusions. History has already judged us.... I never thought I would see such blatant corruption as when the SEC announced its new stock-shorting rules. How do they maintain a pretense of credibility?

That torture was a topic of debate was a signal to The Coherent.

I don't believe that I will live long enough to see the United States recover.

Rollover

In the 1981 movie, Rollover, the movie draws to a close as the Arab nations begin withdrawing all their savings from the United States, precipitating a financial crisis.

Well, friends.
This week we've experienced the rollover moment.

As of today, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are essentially bankrupt, their stocks down 42% and 46% this morning alone, total losses now in the 90% range. I expect that they, along with several other large banks, will effectively be nationalized. This in itself should cause a considerable run on the US dollar.

Stick a fork in the US, baby, because it's done.
Golden, crispy brown.

Burnt Toast

I haven't kept up with the markets for several weeks.
It appears that MBIA, ABK, CFC, WM are essentially bankrupt.
Many regional banks, too.
GM.
Citicorp.

Wow.

There's just too much paper.
95% of Americans don't realize we've been in a gold bull for seven years.
An equal number don't understand what's happening to their "savings" or income.

Wow, this sure looks like the real meltdown. At last. The Federal Reserve has pumped close $500 billion in to prop up the System but it's only slowed the rate of collapse. There's just too much meaningless paper.

I wouldn't be surprised if the current Federal governmment becomes one of the crash casualities. As I said before, I just don't see how the Feds can fix something like this. It's too big. The final credit expansion was just too big.

A Bit Much

My first orgy was... a bit much.

Sex

I should have been having sex like this when I was twenty-five.
My alt.com purity score now down to 64.

And Wells Fargo is a good short candidate.

The Ongoing Meltdown

My prediction from Sept 2007 -

"Food and energy prices will rise faster than inflation while real estate, bonds and durable good prices will trail inflation"

That's been fairly good so far.
Bonds haven't crashed yet like I've expected.

Option ARM resets are now impacting the housing market, with rising defaults for the next several years. There will be no "recovery" in housing for quite some time. Oil at $70/barrel is plentiful but nobody wanted to invest the necessary billions into infrastructure and transportation. New supplies and energy-efficient infrastructure won't impact prices for several years. In many ways, this is a repeat of the 1970s.

Women, American workers and culture remain self-absorbed, mired in political games & feel-good chatter, confident of their intrinsic value in the world. The Empire declines slowly.

I discontinued my ItsJustLunch membership. Lately I've had one date per week while the women were uniformly at one date per month. This tells me there's a serious mismatch in the gender numbers, that there are perhaps 4X more women than men. So even though ItsJustLunch is marginally more affordable for men, they are leaving in large numbers. I suspect that the majority of men probably share my experience, that it's not working particularly well. Just like all other things. I've decided it's just a function of age and expectation. Why would I goof around with women who want marriage but not sex, a liability for me with no corresponding benefit.

Answer?
I wouldn't.
Been there, done that.

I'll hang out with J as long as it lasts.

Plano

I'm going to Plano.
Sigh.