Poker Meme Fizzling Out

Methodology

One year ago, I published this poker memegraph -

How things can change in a year. My three latest sources (Google Trends, BlogPulse.com and Meme Miner) agree... the poker craze peaked in popularity sometime within the past year. It's interesting that the poker meme exhaustion seems to be in tandem with the housing bubble exhaustion.

Note: The Blogpulse graph seems shakey, there's probably not enough long-term data to account for erratic peaks and valleys in the "poker" meme.

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Tell me what to do, D.

YiYamFahZing4Kosher Emergency Transmission

Starlog Update - Despite rising radio radiation, the colonists on YiYamFahZing4Kosher system refuse to evacuate. According to their religious beliefs, a powerful God, "Rich Dad", will appear from the Heavens to save them, bringing forth lowered interest rates, St. Joseph statues and a flood of 14-year-old subprime buyers. Heat and radiation levels continue to rise, as well as option ARM reset payments.

The Prime Directive prevents us from direct intervention. We can only sit here and watch these poor devils fry, but I will NOT put my ship and crew into ARM's way. Uh-Que-ru, contact Star Fleet, inform them that the space around YiYamFahZing4Kosher is dangerously awash with radio radiation and loan-sharking operations. As Captain, I'm requesting a pullback to the outer Rancho, New Mexico ring. Perhaps we can salvage a few of those poor bastards after the initial nova burst.

Kirk out!

YiYamFahZing4Kosher Mission Update

The gravitational and financial anomalies surrounding the YiYamFahZing4Kosher system have attracted deadly concentrations of radio radiation. In accordance with Star Fleet directive #3X-4a, I am countermanding Star Fleet's evacuation orders and holding off at a safe distance from imploding planets within the system.

For now, we'll record the implosion for scientific study. The native population believes that a mythical icon named "Rich Dad" will descend from the heavens to save them. Now monitoring all channels for his appearance.

Log Status - Supplemental

Star Fleet has detected unusually unstable gravitational and financial forces around the YiYamFahZing4Kosher system. They're requesting our immediate presence and evacuation assistance....

Science Officer Spock estimates that this fustercluck has less than six months before implosion. Our mission? To rescue as many natives as possible without endangering ourselves or our credit rating.

Kirk out.

Rescue Mission To The USS SeattleRei Blog

Stardate 38843ja34u1-9u342 -

While enroute to the Vhortanic nebula, we received a distress signal from the USS SeattleReiBlog that two of its prime properties had lost power and were losing altitude. Last update was two weeks ago and now, ominously, we receive only silence. We are diverting from our current course to verify the SeattleRei's last known position and status.

Kirk out.

The Banshee Blues

I have my Defcon 2007 submission figured out!!!!

Detecting Search Engine Advertising Fraud

Tactical Fraud Analysis
Strategic Analysis

It's perfect. It uses the lead-in of Meme theory from the pre-existing presentations and evolves them into a real-world security issue. It's fricking perfect. I'll have to rehash it a little. The odds are good that third-party documentation and confirmations will be available by July, too.

But I have a goal for August, 2007.
Defcon again.

Thank you, Casey!

Bewitched

"We all make mistakes. Of course, when we make mistakes they call it evil. When God makes mistakes, they call it... nature. So whaddya think? Women... a mistake... or DID HE DO IT TO US ON PURPOSE?"

- Witches Of Eastwick

Ideospheric Introspection

Recently I've used graphs from Google Trends and Nielson's Blogpulse to bolster or refute trends which I've detected with MemeMiner.

Each tool occupies a unique portion of the Ideosphere and a confirmation from all three is probably widespread trend. This "set theory" diagram demonstrates their interaction. Google Trends is the set of Google's user queries while Blogpulse is a set of blog entries. These sets might have an intersection while Dejanews is completely independent of both.

Sub-bandwidths of the Ideosphere can be categorized into five types -

An Ideospheric bandwidth (or "channel") either represents a certain meme (and its sub-memes) or it does not. If it represents a meme, it can denote either a positive or negative connotation. Unallocated bandwidth has three potential states -

a) bandwidth which was never exposed to the current meme

b) bandwidth which actively avoids the current meme

c) bandwidth which accepted the current meme and discarded it in favor of a more desirable meme.

Positive and negative connotations are detectable by associated keywords (i.e. a semantic map).

The cause of unallocated bandwidth is trickier to determine, particularly for memes are which actively avoided. Today's case-in-point is "deficit". In spite of massive increases in consumer credit, the Federal deficit and trade deficit, the general public avoids talk and thought of "deficits" -

The absence of information is often meaningful... if it can be detected.

Zune Meme Rerun

Previous Zune meme analysis

Updated Methodology

Microsoft's iPod competitor, Zune, is still not picking up mindshare or buzz traction. Note the similarity of the "Zune" meme's initial spike and falloff to the Breitbart meme (possible artificial manipulation of Internet propagation). Memes travel through the Ideosphere with finite velocity, it can be difficult to increase meme velocity or penetration with marketing hype.

Air America Meme - Another Successful Prediction

I predicted Air America's demise over one year ago based on this graph, trend is confirmed by Google Trends -

Methodology

SOA Methodology, Part 1

Why do you want Service-Oriented Architecture?

To reduce cost (transaction costs).
To increase reliability.

Most companies, particularly the larger ones, have "organic" information systems which were grown over time, not designed. These systems embody a history of decisions which were appropriate for the company at a certain time and size. But many of these decisions conflict with each other or with future direction. A high-level view of the IT structure shows unnecessary transaction boundaries that create latency, data redundancy, duplication and excessive complexity -

Most companies run past the "economy of scale" of their infrastructure. Real costs are always higher than the theoretical cost of a designed system. As this "economy of scale" mismatch increases, costs increase too fast and redesign becomes more attractive. The Service-Oriented Architecture is today's redesign paradigm. In theory, it should create an integrated and seamless IT nervous system -

That's the theory. The reality of a redesign is different, but still a significant improvement over the legacy system -

A primary consideration in infrastructure design is to minimize complexity whenever possible, in spite of political or legacy issues. The "SOA Methodology" aims to improve project success by minimizing complexity.

Part 2

SOA Methodology, Part 2

Part 1

IBM's strategic SOA design documents apply standard project methodologies (top-down, bottom-up, meet-in-the-middle) to SOA systems, but the result is a confusing mixture of methodology without clear guidelines.

A possible failure of SOA could be the translation of strategic vision into the tactical creation and grouping of code-level objects, i.e. the operational project level.

These "SOA methodology" guidelines make the the following assumptions -

Assumptions

1) Most SOA projects are for large organizations that operate outside the "economy of scale" of their IT infrastructure, resulting in inconsistent information integrity, poor information latency, and marginal IT costs which rise faster than organizational growth.

2) SOA adoption is driven by the need to reduce system complexity.

3) Upper management is committed to function over form.

4) System complexity is inversely related to project success. As complexity increases, the project success rate falls.

Our mission: to reduce project risk by reducing system complexity.

The strategy is to decompose the high-level abstract design patterns of SOA to develop concrete guidelines for project management.

Part 3

SOA Methodology, Part 3

Part 2

The high-level SOA design pattern is three interrelated design patterns -

The "Adapter pattern" appears to be lowest risk. For legacy code, the adapter segment probably has risk and complexity which increases at a linear rate because of the low interdependencies of the connectors.

The "Business Directory (Abstract Factory)" consists of interfaces and routing for new custom code or commercial frameworks. Complexity and risk are higher than for the "adapter" segement, but still within the known domain of normal projects. At an abstract level, delegate this pattern to the Mythical Man-Month Methodology. (for further resolution vis a vis empirical determination of impedance-matched frameworks and team size)

Our greatest area of risk, then, is the "Enterprise Service Bus (Mediator pattern)". It is in greatest need of risk management and reduction of complexity. These complexity guidelines are designed for rock-bottom risk.

Part 4

SOA Methodology, Part 4

Part 3

Follow the ESB Guidelines with a thin-thread prototype model -

1) Evaluate and choose a commercial ESB.
1) Implement the ESB and a security foundation.
2) Create the Business Directory and some security interfaces.
3) Add one or two adapters to demonstrate the thin-thread prototype via security enforcement.

3) Determine interfaces for an application framework or custom-code project.
5) Install and modify the new application.
6) Expand the Business Directory to reference new interfaces.
7) Add adapters to support each new application.
8) Iterate through steps 3 through 7 for all applications.

* We need to address management of WS-Profile here somewhere, as well as integrity of interfaces across adapters and within the Business Directory.

* We need to expand this area to handle business logic.

Part 5

SOA Methodology, Part 5

Part 4

Let's assume that the complexity of an SOA project is driven by its components. A project might include legacy support, commercial frameworks and custom code, but it's worthwhile to characterize the project's primary disposition to assess complexity. We can define a project complexity axis, ranging from lowest (linear) to highest (exponential), which uses Big O notation project complexity as a rough proxy for risk.

Legacy code migrations are lowest risk. The project's main tasks are wrapping existing code in standardized interfaces, data transformation and relatively minor application changes. Complexity may increase at a linear rate relative to functions and codebase size.

Projects with new, hand-written code are highest risk because they include SOA adoption risk and normal project risk. These projects appear at the opposite end of the "Big O" scale, arbitrarily labelled as "exponential" risk. Remember that object complexity tends to be multiplicative.

We've identified the ESB as the area of highest risk. Adherence to the proposed ESB guidelines will tend to reduce the inherent project risk. Ignoring the ESB guidelines will shift the project towards higher risk.

Mythical Man-Month Methodology