Evolution Of The IT Market

I presented this concept towards the end of my 2005 Defcon presentation. The IT Market can be considered, in gestalt, as being an S-curve market with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...

As the 2001 inflection point approached, the IT industry was increasingly focused on mass market products and standards - modem protocols, Windows, TCP/IP, email, etc. A broader consumer audience created economies of scale for high-volume products and services.

But in the post-Crash world, profit margins on mass-produced products have fallen. Niche markets with high profit margins are sought after, but many companies still upgrade legacy products for decreasing profit margins (Oracle, Microsoft come to mind). The IT market is still in a slow-motion shakeout period, but I suspect that few IT workers believe it.

My own survival focus has been to track the growth rate of technologies, determine how viable and profitable they are, and move into the best bets. My current bets are SOA and Business Process Analysis...

Anger Meme Refined

This is a refinement of the Anger Meme. After a little experimentation, I discovered that the adjective "angry" is more representative than "anger" of informal conversation. The Google Trends and BlogPulse.com graphs for "angry" show a significant uptrend -

Anger Meme

From blogpulse.com, a more sophisticated trend tracking tool -

Taken from The Seven Deadly Sins

See the uptick in "anger"? I wondered how the housing crash was impacting societal mood so I ran this query. I didn't expect an increase, but perhaps "anger" will keep increasing as the housing debacle unfolds.

Look at "anger", then look at the other 6 deadly sins. See how the others show minor decreases relative to increases in "pride" and "anger"? If we could parse out all keywords and phrases related to human moods, I believe it would be a zero-sum bandwidth, that is, a net increase in one mood (anger, for instance) has a matching decrease in other moods. If the Ideosphere has finite bandwidth, then it stands to reason that the sub-bandwidth for emotions is finite, too.

Locations

Places I've been.
Another SEO experiment.

Simi Valley, CA (many years)
San Francisco, CA (3 months, total)
San Luis Obispo, CA (2 years)
Northridge, CA (1 year)
Palmdale, CA (3 years)
Palm Springs, CA (1 month)
Thousand Oaks, CA (1 year)
Los Angeles, CA (several years)
Santa Barbara, CA (1 week)
Bakersfield, CA (several weeks, total)
Coos Bay, OR (2 days)
Portland, OR (1 year)
Bellevue, WA (1 year)
Bothell, WA (3 months)
Renton, WA (6 months)
Forks, WA (1 day)
Manhattan, NY (2 months)
Somerset, NJ (2 months)
Atlantic City (1 day)
Bahamas (3 days)
Boise, ID (5 years)
Topeka, KS (2 days)
Denver, CO (2 years)
Las Vegas, NV (7 months)
Knoxville, TN (2 months)
Huntsville, AL (6 months)
Atlanta, GA (2 weeks)
Scottsdale, AZ (1 year)
Glendale, AZ (3 years)
Washington, DC (1 day)
Ft Lauderdale, FL (5 months)
Key West, FL (1 day)
Panama City, FL (2 weekends)
Orlando, FL (3 days)
Austin, TX (1 week)
Dallas, TX (2 weeks)
Virgin Islands (1 week)
Honolulu, HI (1 week)
Charlotte, NC (1 month)
Pittsburgh, PA (2 weeks)
Hartford, CT (1 week)
Boston, MA (1 week)
Williamsburg, VA (1 month)
Fredericksburg, VA (1 week)
Charlotteville, VA (1 week)
Norfolk, VA (1 week)
Toronto, ON (2 days)

Weapons

Weapons I've fired.

Partly an SEO experiment on Sogou, Kinkos and a couple other things. An additional 15-20 aren't listed because I don't remember exact details.

After my wife learned to shoot, she tried to drag me to shooting ranges to share her new-found enthusiasm. She happened upon a fellow enthusiast, an Englishman and ten-year US resident and then they both pressed me to participate.

Mr. English interpreted my refusal as a sign of male ego, that perhaps I had bragged to my wife and feared to be found out; he couldn't imagine that I just may have lost interest as I did with tennis and video games. He was amusing at first, and then annoying...

and then amusing again when facts finally sank in and his face turned red.

Colt 1908 (380 acp)
Colt 1911 (45 acp)
Colt Combat Commander (9mm)
Colt Combat Commander (45 acp)
AMT 380
Colt Python (357 mag)
S&W Model 19 (357 mag)
S&W Model 25-2 (45acp)
S&W Model 25-5 (45 colt)
S&W Model 29 (44 mag)
S&W Model 39 (9mm)
S&W Model 1917 (45 acp)
Sig 220 (45 acp)
Sig 230 (380 acp)
Sig 228 (9mm)
Sig 226 (9mm)
Star PD (45 acp)
Starfire (9mm)
Starfire (40)
Bren Ten (10mm)
Winchester Model 94 lever action (357 mag)
Winchester Model 94 lever action (30-30)
Browning Model 1892 lever action (44 mag)
Llama Model 82 (9mm)
LLama 380
Llama Omni (45 acp)
Mauser Broomhandle (9mm)
Astra 400 (9mm largo)
Ruger Blackhawk (45 colt)
Ruger Redhawk (44 mag)
Ruger Security Six (9mm)
Ruger Mini-14 (223)
Ruger 22 rifle
Browning BLR (243) (very accurate, I should have kept this)
Browning Hi-Power (9mm)
M1-Carbine (30 cal)
M1 Garand (30-06)
Colt M-16 (223, full auto)
Colt AR-15 (22)
FN FAL (308)
M-14 (308)
M-60 (308, full-auto, awe-inspiring with tracers)
M-203 40mm grenade launcher
LAW (Light Anti-tank Weapon)
AK-47 (7.62)
Thomspon SMG (45 acp, full-auto)
Johnson LMG (30-06)
Beretta 92 (9mm)
Grendel (380 acp)
Keltec (380 acp)
Charter Arms AR-7 (22)
Charter Arms Bulldog (44 special)
Dan Wesson (357 mag)
Desert Eagle (357 mag)
Thompson Contender (357 mag)
Glock 17 (9mm)
Glock 23 (40)
H&K P7 (9mm)
H&K MP5 (9mm, full-auto)
H&K 91 (308)
H&K 93 (223)
Remington Model 700 (30-06)
Remington Model 700 (7mm Mauser)
Remington Model 1100 (12 ga)
Remington Model 870 (12 ga)
Remington Model 870 (20 ga)
Steyr SSG (308)
Taurus (357 mag)
Baby Browning (25 acp)
Webley Mk 6 (455)
Webley Mk4 (38)
Czech 52 (7.62)

Mounting RE Losses

Housing crash losses accelerate - Entry #1 is a $600K loss (31%) in Sacramento. Three hundred listings and they all show a loss for the current homeowner (assuming a sale occurs at the current asking price).

Two trillion $$$ of ARM loan resets is due over the next two years. Rising interest rate costs will force marginal homeowners to sell or default.

The crash has been in progress since Winter, 2005 (10 months) as measured by inventory change or April, 2006 (5 months) as measured by homebuilder stock crash.

Average housing crash lasts 26 to 52 months. The best case scenario is that the crash runs for sixteen more months but I think that a 52 month minimum is a good bet, considering that this was the largest real estate boom in U.S. history.

The party is just getting started. The boom created a positive feedback effect on the general economy which is now shifting into reverse. Imagine a $600K loss. Would you go out to dinner to celebrate?

Click 'N' Cloak

The Cloaked log entry for Macintosh Safari 125.8 is gone...

216.127.72.7 - - [23/Sep/2006:04:18:32 -0400] "GET /roller HTTP/1.0" 302 - "-" "Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 6.0; Windows NT 5.0)"

but the click pattern still looks suspiciously familiar.
I'm starting to understand why Salem burned their witches.
They're like a bad penny or fleas, you just can't get rid of them!

The Scene

I passed on the Portland dream job. Unknown political factions strip-mined the value out of it and imagined that I'd be satisfied with the shiny shell of what remained. I asked myself, why do I care about this job anymore? I realized that I didn't, it became the type of job that I've rejected several times this year.

I deal with used-car salesmen now. It's endemic to today's software industry, a china shop filled with fawning bulls, their jobs dependent on political machinations and projects which never finish, their credit cards maxed out by marginally affordable mortgages and new cars.

The country seems filled with provincial suckers and egotistical scammers and I can't help thinking that it's related to the continuous flood of Federal fake money which created the DotCom and real estate bubbles. Perhaps it was always this way. Perhaps I was too naive or inattentive to see it before.

I used to cared about it.

The workplace has slowly "evolved" from producing things of value to marketing hype and finally onto trickery and sabotage. In the Enlightened Age, however, it's a "witch burning offense" to mention this sickness. People want to "feel comfortable". They wolf down deception as comfort food.

Do I care enough to do a critical analysis and documentation?
Probably not.

History will label this period. I'm not sure what its name will be, but The Great Reckoning still seems appropriate. In historical context, I think 2000 will be identified as the origin and the past few years as a delaying action by the Powers That Be.

My bet - The Feds won't change interest rates at their next meeting, again. The Federal Reserve has developed a pattern of holding pat during high uncertainty. It won't matter anyway. Even if short-term rates revert to previous lows, more debt has been built up in the past three years. They'd have to cut rates even lower, much as the Japanese did after the Nikkei collapse.

Re-Possessed!

So I'm sitting in the Wilde Rover eating a beef pasty and listening to a conversation between two young computer geeks...

Geek#1 - "Hey, have you talked to Mike lately?"
Geek#2 - "Not for a couple of weeks"

Geek#1 - "I think his condo is being repossessed"
Geek#2 - "What? What happened?"

Geek#1 - "I don't know, I went by his place..."
Geek#1 "and there was a notice posted on his door"
Geek#2 - "Wow. I wonder what happened"

Last month I saw one credit card denial at ZTejas.
The perpetrator wasn't suprised by the rejection.
This week I saw another credit card denial.
And today I garnered some heresay about a condo repossession.

Remember, kids! Like rollercoasters, bubbles have asymmetrical behavior. The ride up takes much longer than the ride down! But I'm surprised it's happening so quickly, the impact from $2 trillion of option ARM resets has barely begun.

Hit Me

In other news, ItsJustLunch.com may have finally produced an interesting result as part of The Dating Strategy. Color me surprised, although I won't be positive for a few more days.

I learned many things from "D". I'm fairly sure now that I become a workaholic early in life to avoid sexual issues. Perhaps the corollary is that many workaholics are potential sexual volcanos waiting to erupt, depending on their stage in life and current circumstances.

SEAF T-Shirts!

My designer formal wear for SEAF 2007.
I'm thinking about submitting them as an erotic entry!

The New Gig

"Analyze IT solutions, detect critical deficiencies for compliance with IT strategic direction...

Provide integration expertise and design direction...

Establish standards and best practice for integration, design, development, testing and support...

Recommend strategies for laying down infrastructure with corporate and client high-availability, performance, security, and monitoring requirements in mind...

Act as a technical lead on cross-functional teams of developers and architects...

Develop technical proof-of-concepts to demonstrate tools, methodologies and knowledge...

Develop innovative and appropriate architectures...
Tie business initiatives to technology..."

I like the consulting $$$$, but this gig has significantly more creative control than anything I've done since 1999. Plus, I do like Portland and maybe the women will be a little grittier and accessible. I could make 50% more on that NJ gig, but it's a career dead-end.

The Central

My latest hangout is The Central in Kirkland.

Blue collar / biker bars have always attracted me and The Central has that feel. I like the honesty of the women. They dress in jeans and minimal makeup. They don't play the the same games.

Two months ago, I noticed Elissa playing pool at the Central. Think of Sela Ward but with wider hips and face. Her breasts are a bit too small and she's a bit too tall, but she has an interesting beauty. Her hair is pure jet-black and luscious, her teeth are great (when she smiles, that is). Her face shows concentrated intent when she shoots and she's just shy of full-blown flakiness with restrained dance moves and rare playful commentary.

She's aware of me now, I think. It's always hard to gauge your own effect on an environment, but for the past three weeks she seems... more exhibitionist, happier, she smiles and kids around more, more serious about her shots. Occasionally I catch her eye and she's careless about how she orients her body direction, ho ho.

She's an unconventional beauty. She has several male friends, but I don't sense any romantic involvement. She has a surpressed sexuality, a mild shyness that appeals to me.

I'm a little sad that my time at The Central is almost over.

Shark Club Spanking

I got spanked last week for leering at young women on the Shark Club dance floor.

So I'm sipping a rum & coke by the dance floor when I feel a smack on my ass from behind. I'm too shocked to react, but after the second swat I turn to the two short, twenty-something brunettes behind me. The nearest (and cutest) laughs, her friend is apprehensive and my mind tries to make sense of it -

Oh, man, they're too young. But they're legal age. They're not gorgeous, but they're okay. I'm not into spanking, but... I can be flexible. There's two of them and only one of me, but... I can be flexible. Why are these young women interested in me? But it happens so often now. I'm not into spanking, but...

Then the cute one turns, snuggles her back up against my chest, grabs my left hand and moves it up to cup her right breast.

I go into another shocked silence.
Then she smiles up at me and asks, "Do you ever talk?"

"I... I... ," thoughts race through my mind and I wonder if they are witty enough or appropriate... my self-restraint wilts.

"I... yes, sometimes."

She grins, but her friend pulls her away and they move off onto the dance floor.

So that's how it's going to be. I'm going to end up with somebody about half my age. This is happening much too often, these younger women are too aggressive. I'm not happy about plundering the next generation's gene pool for my own selfish needs and it goes against the way I was raised, but... I can find ways to rationalize it.

Portland Colophon

Small fish in a big pond or big fish in a small pond?
Big fish in a small pond, a pond about the size of Portland, I guess.

I had three career goals in 2003.
I couldn't make them happen in 2003.
I coudn't make them happen here in 2004 or elsewhere in 2005.
Or in the first half of 2006.
But I finally got them lined up this week.

I had one contract gig pending at $160K per year.
Two others in process at $140K.
But I let them go.
They were in areas I didn't like or high risk or career deadends.
And I'm weary of the deceptiveness of these consulting companies.

--

Three young women tried to connect with me last night at a karoake bar.
Call them Gwenyth Paltrow, Cameron Diaz and Janeane Garofalo.

Gwen, early twenties, beautiful, blond and too thin, made eye contact with me for almost ten seconds. Shocked, I turned around to check behind me, to find her true target. Nobody. A few minutes later, she did it again. I couldn't resist checking behind me again.

When she eyed me for a third time with a smile, I had to turn away, cover my mouth and laugh.

Apparently we mutually agreed to disengage, and then Cameron and Janeane walked in with three other women in their early thirties, to celebrate Janeane's birthday. The bar was crowded, so Cameron squeezed in alongside me and half-sat in my lap.

"Do you mind if I order a drink?", she smiled. Her eyes were partly hidden beneath a stylish golf cap, but she was clearly blitzed. Then Janeane started in with eye contact and smiles, apparently sizing me up as a suitable birthday present. They giggled and laughed for awhile, but I didn't pursue them aggressively and they moved onto to an empty table.

"So how did you like that?", the bartender grinned.
"Is it always like that here?"
"Oh, yeah, at least, usually wilder"

So.
What the heck.
I cancelled my other interviews.