Apple iPod vs Microsoft Zune

Graphing & Data Methodology

Although the Apple iPod meme has probably peaked...





public awareness of Microsoft's competing Zune is almost zero...





Zune versus iPod, on log scale...

Run A Meme Reactivated

Run A Meme tool is reactivated.

It appears that Google has removed or increased the query limit that they imposed several months ago. This tool is primitive compared to Google's Trends tool, but Dejanews data spans over two decades and can show longer-term trends.

Thought For The Day, Part II

I wish I could get her out of my mind.

It would be helpful if I had real work to do!

IPv6 Meme Update

S-curve Methodology
Three-source Sampling Theory

The traditional saying is "buy low, sell high". I like that the IPv6 has been flatlined for six years in Dejanews and Google's trend tracker. One nice thing about the Dejanews graph (versus Google's Trends) is its longer time series which shows a history of "false dawns" for IPv6, i.e. premature expectations of widespread adoption.

The Google Trends graph shows a deceleration downtrend which could be positive. I don't pretend to know why IPv6 looks this way, although I've read that marginal cost of implementation and risk are very high, which may be reflected in the graphs.

Conclusion - IPv6 isn't worth pursuing for now, but it's on my watchlist, I'll be checking for a trend change every few months.

Thought For Today

When you are stalled by a roadblock, blow something up.

It's time to blow something up.

Date #10 and #11

Damn.
3200 page hits yesterda, that's a new record for 2006.
Go, Asian Overlords!

---

Date #10 was an impromptu lunch with D. We ate lunch and had a drink on our second meeting. As we talked, I began to suspect something. Then I asked about her IQ score...

She has twenty points over me.

Then I realized that I'm even kinkier than I thought because...
it turned me on!
Yikes!

---

Date #11 was another surprise. C was intense and intimidating at first, but I soon realized that she has the same spirit, fearlessness and sense of adventure as my ex-wife. I hope she doesn't have the same firearms experience, though. I can't run or dodge that fast anymore.

---

H is hot, she had me going tonight at The Parlor, showed me her tattoo, whoo hoo!
What the heck, maybe I *could* do the twenty-year-old girlfriend. I overlooked a major benefit of younger women... most of them don't know how to shoot yet!

Chinese Firecrackers

Nice 2400-hit day, looks like Beijing and South Korea joined in the fun.

You GO, girls!
Fire off a glaring, red 1000-ft flare and bring Uncle Sam to me!

Con Artists

Q: What's the difference between a prostitute and a con artist?!

A: The con artist takes your money and spends the rest of her life worrying about it!!!
HO!

Q: What's the difference between guilt and paranoia?!

A: The Internet!
HO!

Q: What's worse than being paranoid?!

A: Being in New Jersey!
HO!

Q: How many paranoid women does it take to kill a man's sex drive?!

A: Only one, but you have to marry her first!
HO!

Q: What's more fun than scaring a paranoid person?!

A: Prosecuting one!
HO!

Never Trust Inferior Cloaking Software!

"title="...mp;client=pub-3559288694001724&forid=1&channel=0448546432&ie=GB2312&oe=GB2312&cof=GALT%3A%23008000%3BGL%3A1%3BDIV%3A%23336699%3BVLC%3A663399%3BAH%3Acenter%3BBGC%3AFFFFFF%3BLBGC%3A336699%3BALC%3A0000FF%3BLC%3A0000F">/custom?q=www.the-cloak.com&sa=Google+Search&a... 1"

Well, anyway, I'm trying something new today, hanging out in various coffee shops, reworking and polishing the Defcon presentation. I might post something of value today, a high-level synposis of several converging ideas that revolve around the cultural diffusion and biodiversity analog of the Internet.

The Piano

Dating Strategy Cost Analysis

Review of The Dating Strategy.

Before I activated this strategy, I worked out a rough cost-per-headcount for each method, a metric of how much I paid to meet one woman.

1) itsJustLunch.com is easily the most expensive in terms of cost per exposure. They guarantee a matchmaking of 12 to 36 women over one year, giving a projected cost/exposure in the $50-100 range. This pool of participants is primarily business women in my age range.

2) EventsAndAdventures.com boasts 3000 members in the Seattle area but after some black-magic analysis, I came out with a projected exposure of 500 women over the next 12-18 months. Cost per exposure including variable costs for each event is $20-30 range.

3) The empirical cost/exposure for Yahoo Personals, Match.com, Alt.com and PlentyofFish.com has worked out to $20-30 over the past sixty days. A major downside of the personal ads is my age. I rarely receive replies from anyone less than four years younger, probably due to the "shopping cart" nature of the profiles.

4) Bars. This one is harder to quantify due to my vicarious nature, night of the week, location, etc. But the rough estimate over the past sixty days is in the $50 range.

I had high hopes for ItsJustLunch.com. In theory, it should be closest to what I think I want, a mirror image of me in a woman's body! It's taking longer and yielding less than the other strategies, but I still have hope for it.

The change in bar venues boosted my hopes for awhile, but last night I was at Joey's in Bellevue surveying possibilities. I was struck by the vapid, Stepford-girl nature of these bleached blonde debutantes dressed up in various of the same eye makeup and prom dress. I never felt less desire for an erection in my life!

My personal ads, now more light-hearted and flirty, show a clear increase in responses, but not enough to offset the current leader, which is...

EventsAndAdventures.com (E&A). I was sceptical about E&A after my first two events, but in the latest three events I met at least 12 women of possible romantic interest. Not only is E&A the cost-per-exposure leader but it has produced significantly faster exposures than the other strategies. My age seems to be less of a factor in E&A, too.

Cloaking Anomaly Exposed

So far today I have three search references to "www.the-cloak.com" from three different countries. It seems that "www.the-cloak.com" is a popular search word gateway into my site.

Or is it?

Let's check the macro outlook for www.the-cloak.com with Meme Miner

Hmmm.
It appears that www.the-cloak.com has been falling in general conversation for a few years now.

An interesting anomaly, yes?
Could there be some skewing behavior here from my rabid fan club?!

Defcon Bit

The Defcon presentation includes a bit on the Saleslogix disruption. I'm glad I distilled a more tactical description for the show.

Hackers being hackers, I expect a sceptical audience. After all, it is Defcon and this is one flakey, strange matter, cold fusion-y presentation. But I have circumstantial evidence in the shape of a job interview I did in 2003. I walked in and there he was, the former CIO of Saleslogix.

CIO: "So. It's you."
Me: "Yeah. It's me."

CIO: "You caused a lot of trouble".
Me: "I wasn't sure if I did or not." ( and I wasn't until that moment!)

CIO: "You disrupted the company for weeks."
Me: "Hmmm."

CIO: "But you were pretty amusing."

Now, the Constructive Me is focused on the job interview and getting that job. It's another startup company, I know some of the coworkers and I'd have some real freedom again.

But the Devious Me is thinking....

"YES!!!!"
"I KNEW IT."
"I SCREWED THAT PLACE UP BIG-TIME!!!!"
"WHOO HOO!!! YEAH, BABY!!!!"

I got my official hire offer the next day.

---

Look.
I won't be there on Saturday.
But you can call me anytime you want, baby!

Kinkos again?!
This late?!
Holy cow.... am I that predictable?

Turn the clock to zero
Sister, you'll never know how much I miss you
Starting up a brand new day.

I'm the train and you're the station!
I'm the flagpole to your nation!

---

The July 4th Fireworks Cruise was more fun than I'd imagined.
I met several interesting women - Lisa, Lynn, Vicki, Toni, Audrey and a few others.

Dating Paranoia 60-day Update

Period: May 1, 2006 to July 3rd, 2006.

I met approximately 32 eligible women.

1) ItsJustLunch.com - 2

2) Personal Ads
Yahoo Personals - 6 (3)
Alt.com - 2
Match.com - 0
PlentyOfFish.com - 3
The Stranger - 1 (1)

3) EventsAndAdventures.com - 4 (1)

4) Bars - 12 (3)

5) Other - 2

Only 8 proceeded past a simple first introduction (# in parenthesis).
22 are now dead ends.
The remaining 10 have potential to proceed, but probably only 1/2 will.

That's a mortality rate of over 60% out of the box, where almost no communication occurred. Most of the early aborts were killed off by the woman, not by me.

What's good is the rate of one new introduction per two days, better than I'd hoped for.

What's bad is that I probably can't maintain this pace. I used up a good chunk of the Yahoo Personals (2/3rds of current profiles), and eliminated Match.com and Alt.com from further participation. The Stranger is close to exhaustion, too.

Coffeehouse Hustle

My brother pointed across the street to a man entering the new coffeeshop.

"Ask yourself. Why is a man with a waterbottle entering a coffeeshop?"

I swallowed some scrambled eggs and thought it over, but no answer came. Apparently my brother had gotten smarter than me in the past ten years.

"He'll come back out within a minute or two without coffee."

Bingo. Mr. Waterbottle exited without a coffee cup and continued down the street.

"Just watch. He'll go into the Starbucks next."

Mr. Waterbottle paused for a second and then stepped inside Starbucks.

"Damn", I said. "How did you know that?"

"He's looking for women. He won't buy any coffee, but he'll stop inside each of the coffee shops along the street here."

About fifteen minutes later, my brother pointed out a second man.

"Watch. He'll come out of the coffeeshop in a minute or two."

And I sat there, slightly shocked as the second man duplicated the actions of the original Mr. Waterbottle. My brother, married for eighteen years, knew more about pursuing women than me.

---

The monitors out of Beijing disappeared.
Looks like I'm still getting a daily check, though.

---

I just need a couple of pieces for the Defcon presentation.
One epiphany.
Or maybe two perceptions.
It's there, I can feel it, but I can't get my hands on it,
I can't shake it out my subconscious mind.

Come on.
Give it to me.