Virtualization Meme & Microsoft
Five-year Dejanews memegraph of virtualization trend -
Five-year trend of Microsoft stock -
I don't see how this accelerating virtualization trend is good for Microsoft. It could have happened ten years ago, but for whatever reason, TCP/IP standardization is now making operating systems into a commodity item. The value of virtualization is encapsulation and reduction of total transaction costs in IT management, based on my own brief experience so far. The virtualization vendors are arbitraging the difference between the cost of Windows and the cost of alternative operating systems, which is likely to increase pricing pressure on Microsoft. No doubt my pseudo-enemies at No Treason would see this as a triumph of the free market over monopolies. Perhaps they're right this time.
If the concept of social bandwidth is correct, i.e. that people will only spend a finite amount of their time on computers and that point is close at hand, then Microsoft's advantage of "user interface" will decrease in importance. A possible measurement of this trend - what is the makeup of all virtual machines? Does Windows make up an increasing or decreasing share of VMs?
I might run a couple of comparison graphs to see if a trend is already in place.
VMWare shows a trend change towards faster growth while Microsoft's growth trend slowed down. But it's only two months of data so there is still doubt about Microsoft's long-term position.
( May 16 2006, 09:16:56 PM EDT ) Permalink Comments [2]
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