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20061111 Saturday November 11, 2006

The Shape Of Memes To Come

Indiana Casey And The Missing Meme
Indiana Casey And The Search For Rich Dad!

Read them all, amaze your friends!

Casey's (IAmFacingForeclosure.com) new videoblogging is interesting, but I doubt it will change his site's growth curve. His plight appeals to a limited number of people and for a limited time. I learned that about my own site two years ago.

This is the beginner's course in Meme Theory, tailored especially for Casey Serin.

People have a finite attention span because they have finite time.
The sum of all people is a finite pool of attention span.
The great majority of attention span is already assigned to things that people care about -


Therefore, audiences resist new ideas which consume their time. A meme passes through a population at a natural rate which tends to look like an S-curve. However, it is possible to grab a share of audience attention through audacious and unusual acts. I call this "overdriving a meme".

But it's pointless to overdrive a meme for long-term purposes. Here are two examples of suspicious growth curves - Breitbart and RocketBoom. Please notice how they've turned out so far.

I tried to "overdrive" my own site.
Compare the traffic patterns of my site to IAmFacingForeclosure.com.

(disclaimer: I've picked up some nice traffic from Casey's plight and you might guess that I consider it a short-term spike which doesn't mean much. But Casey's case (yuk yuk) is an interesting re-mix of meme ideas and graphs, and the crosscut of traffic is a different mix of companies & people than what I usually get).

( Nov 11 2006, 01:19:56 PM EST ) Permalink Comments [1]

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[Trackback] it totally rocks!

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