MySpace Meme - Successful Prediction & Update
S-curve Methodology
Three-source Sampling Theory
In April 2006, I predicted that MySpace had topped out in rate of growth based on Dejanews keyword histograms.
Alexa and Google Trends confirm that prediction.
Dejanews.com shows a peak in January, 2006.
Alexa's traffic peaks in March, 2006.
Google Trends shows a peak in July, 2006.
Dejanews predicted the Alexa traffic change three months before it occurred.
Google's Trends tool, based on search items, lagged the change by four months.
Dejanews was a leading indicator while Google Trends was a lagging indicator.
My opinion - Fox probably paid top dollar for MySpace.com in July 2005 and MySpace is close to peaking in terms of total users & traffic.
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